COMPARISON OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO-LANE HIGHWAY INTEGRATING TRAFFIC AND PAVEMENT CONDITION PARAMETERS

  • O. M. POPOOLA Department of Civil Engineering, Moshood Abiola Polytechnic, Abeokuta
  • O. S. ABIOLA Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta
  • S. O. ODUNFA Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta
  • S. O. ISMAILA Department of Mechanical Engineering, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta
Keywords: pavement condition, accident frequency, models, 2-lane highway, traffic

Abstract

In Nigeria, literature on the integration of traffic of pavement condition and traffic characteristics in predicting road traffic accident frequency on 2-lane highways are scanty, hence this article to fill the gap. A comparison of road traffic accident frequency prediction models on IIesha-Akure-Owo road based on the data observed between 2012 and 2014 is presented. Negative Binomial (NB), Ordered Logistic (OL) and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) models were used to model the frequency of road traffic accident occurrence using road traffic accident data from the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) and pavement conditions parameters from pavement evaluation unit of the Federal Ministry of Works, Kaduna. The explanatory variables were: annual average daily traffic (aadt), shoulder factor (sf), rut depth (rd), pavement condition index (pci), and international roughness index (iri). The explanatory variables that were statistically significant for the three models are aadt, sf and iri with the estimated coefficients having the expected signs. The number of road traffic accident on the road increases with the traffic volume and the international roughness index while it decreases with shoulder factor. The systematic variation explained by the models amounts to 87.7, 78.1 and 74.4% for NB, ZINB and OL respectively. The research findings suggest the accident prediction models that should be integrated into pavement rehabilitation.

 

Keywords:

 

References

Abdel-Aty M.A, Essam Radwan E.A 2000. Modelling traffic accident occurrence and involvement, Accident Analysis and Prevention 32: 633-642.

Agresti, A. 1984. Categorical data analysis on effect of pavement on traffic accident, Transportation Research Record; 11388: 33-39.

Al-Ghamdi, A. S. 2002. Using logistic regression to estimate the influence of accident factors on accident severity. Accident Analysis & Prevention, (pp. 34, 729-741).

Al-Masaeid H.R 1997, Impact of pavement condition on rural road accidents, Canadian Journal of Civil engineering 24 (4): 523-531.

Breslow, N. 2004. Extra-Poisson variation in log-linear models. Applied Statistics: 33: 38-44.

Chan Y.V., Huang B., Yan X., Richards S. 2010. Investigating effects of asphalt pavement conditions on traffic accidents in Tennessee based on the pavement management system. Journal of Advanced Transportation 44: 150-161

Chan Y.V., Huang B., Yan X., Richards S. 2009. Relationship between Highway Pavement Condition, Crash Frequency and Crash type. Journal of Transportation Safety and Security 1: 268-281

Chandra S. 2004. Effect of road roughness on capacity of two-lane roads. Journal of Transportation Engineering 130 (3): 360-364.

Chiou Y.C. 2006. An artificial network-based expert system for appraisal of two-car crash accidents, Accident Analysis and Prevention 38: 777–785.

Delen D., Sharda R., Besson M. 2006. Identification significant predictors of injury severity in traffic accidents using a series of artificial neural network, Accident Analysis and Prevention 38: 434-444.

Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC). 2012. 2012 Annual Report. Abuja: FRSC.

Frome, E. L., Cragle, D. L., McLain, R. W. 2000. Poisson regression analysis of the mortality among a cohort of World War II nucfear industry workers. Radiation Research, (pp. 123: I38- 152).

Hosmer, D., Lemeshow, S. 1999. Applied logistic regression on effect of pavement on traffic accident. Accident Analysis and Prevention 44: 152-164.

Karlaftis M.G., Golias I. 2002. Effect of roadway geometry and traffic volume on rural roadway accident rates. Accident Analysis and Prevention 34 (3): 357–365.

Miaou, S.P., Lum, H. 2003. A statistical evaluation of the effects of highway geometric design on truck accident involvements. Transportation Research Record; 1407: 11-23.

Milton, J., Mannering, F. 1997. Relationship among highway geometric, traffic-related elements, and motor-vehicle accident frequencies. Presented at the 76th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Washington, DC.

Zegeer, C.V, Hummer, J., Reinfurt, D., Herf, L., Hunter, W. 2000. Safety Effect of cross-section design for two-lane road. Volume I and II. University of North
Carolina.
Published
2019-05-16
Section
Articles